Chiwaukum Creek, Kelly Mountain, Duncan Fire’s Evening Update ^NH

Basic Information

Current as of 7/22/2014 10:16:14 PM
Incident Type Wildfire
Cause Lightning
Date of Origin Tuesday July 15th, 2014 approx. 01:00 PM
Location Chiwaukum is near the community of Leavenworth. Duncan and Kelly Mountain Fires are north of Klone Peak.
Incident Commander Ed Lewis, Incident Commander Pnw Team 3
Incident Description Wildland Fires

Current Situation

Total Personnel 1,011
Size 12,255 Acres
Percent of Perimeter Contained 10%
Fuels Involved Ponderosa pine, grand fir, silver fir, mountain hemlock, sub-alpine fir. Across the 3 fire areas, several fuel models are represented, including 10, 9, 8, 11, 12, 13, and 5. Slash fuel models occur along the north flank of the Chiwaukum Creek fire.
Significant Events No significant fire spread due to more favorable weather with small amounts of precipitation.

Outlook

Planned Actions Chiwaukum Creek: continue to hold fire west of highway; and continue to identify and implement containment options in the northern and southeastern areas of the fire. Continue to provide structure protection where needed.

Kelly fire: monitor fire utilizing aircraft until wet weather system passes and crews are re-inserted.

Duncan: continue to develop contingency lines and shaded fuel breaks along roads and dozer lines for indirect containment options.

Projected Incident Activity 12 Hours:

Rain is expected to persist off and on over all fires in the complex and no perimeter growth is expected. Heavy fuels will continue to consume.

24 Hours:

Moderate precipitation is expected in and near all fires in the complex, and therefore fire spread is not expected. Heavy fuels will continue to consume.

48 Hours:

Fire activity is expected to slowly return, as weather becomes warm and dry again. With the projected strong winds, some fire spread will occur on all uncontained portions of all fires, however significant spread is not expected at this time.

72 Hours:

Fuels will continue to dry as weather again returns to warm and dry, however significant growth is not expected at this time.

After 72 Hours:

Fire activity is expected to increase significantly as weather becomes warmer and drier, and likely to be above average temperatures and possibly triple digits in the vicinity of the fire area.

Remarks Personnel will continue to support local initial attack as needed. National Guard troops (100) will be active and supporting fireline operations within the 24 hour timeframe.

Current Weather

Weather Concerns Rain showers and overcast skies lowered afternoon temperatures and caused a notable increase in afternoon relative humidity. Southwesterly winds are expected to gradually increase tonight as a deep low pressure system approaches from the west. Light-to-moderate rain is anticipated through much of Wednesday, as the storm system continues to move through the area. Rough storm-total expected rainfall amounts are: Up to 0.50″ at Chiwaukum, up to 0.25″ at Duncan & Kelly, and up to 0.20″ on Mills Canyon.

A slight chance of thunderstorms remains in the forecast for Wednesday afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms pose the threat of brief heavy rain, which could cause flash flooding, debris flows, mudslides, etc. This threat is heightened on the fuel-barren, hydrophobic soils of wildfire burn scars.

The NWS in Spokane has issued a flash flood watch, which includes the Mills Canyon fire area.

Winds will increase substantially as well; initially moderate southwesterly then shifting northwesterly Wednesday evening.

Light rain showers will continue through early Thursday, then dissipate by noon as the upper low moves northeast of the fires. Temperatures will be slow to rebound and are forecast to peak in the 60s. Primary weather concern on Thursday will be the moderate northwesterly winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph.

More seasonable weather is expected Friday and high pressure will slowly build over the fires; allowing temperatures and relative humidity to trend back toward normal values. Expect highs of 72-82 degrees and relative humidity in the 30s.

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